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Is unpredictability a Trump card?

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2025 has that “where on earth has the time gone” feel about it, so my first missive of 2025 comes just a day before half term!

Here at Polestar, alongside deals, we have been busy preparing sector valuations, conducting a sustainability survey, and finalising our seminar to be held on 3 March. As if that were not enough, we have been readying ourselves for the South East Dealmakers Awards, where we are sponsoring Corporate Lawyer of the Year, and I am one of the nominees for Dealmaker of the Year.

No wonder it has taken six weeks for me to put pen to paper, but what a rich topic I have. I am sure we can all agree, love him or loathe him, one Donald J. Trump – the world’s disruptor in chief – has dominated the headlines. His apparently spontaneous musings, outbursts, and pronouncements have surprised even the most ardent Trump watchers.

Crazy ideas about Greenland and turning Gaza into some sort of paradise are counterbalanced by the real effects of a 90-day moratorium on USAID and the reversal of a considerable volume of recent US domestic and foreign policies.

Just look at how yesterday he had a 90-minute phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, evidently without consulting Ukraine or NATO allies. He has unilaterally lifted Putin’s diplomatic isolation and provoked astounded reactions across Europe. Bronwen Maddox, CEO of Chatham House, said “Trump has made clear that friends and allies count for nothing. He has fundamentally undermined European confidence in US commitment to NATO and the principle of mutual defence – the underpinning of peace and security in Europe for over 75 years.”

The strategy of unpredictability, making everyone feel insecure, may well deliver outcomes in the short term, but at what long-term cost? It may be that the long-term repercussions are worth it if the short-term gains are significant enough; however, I think history shows that this is not often the case. Win-win is an anathema to Trump, while many agree in the long run it is the strategy that gives the best outcomes.

Thankfully, dear reader, whilst most of us are not dealing with matters of state, we would not consider running our business affairs with such apparent reckless abandon, with apparently no thought of the consequences. Whilst I am no MAGA enthusiast, he does show us that being cautious and working within the “norms” is unlikely to deliver significant change. Sometimes we need to be brave, grasp a situation, and as the kids would say, own it!

Aside wishing you all a warmer few weeks ahead, we would be very grateful if you were to give us 5-10 minutes and complete our 2025 Sustainability Survey – giving your views on sustainability in your organisation. If you are a software or data company or could provide Whateveritisyoudo as a Service, please come to our seminar. We have a great panel, and some terrific firms have already signed up. There will be so much to learn from each other.

By Charles Whelan on 19/02/2025